The latest PWC UK Higher Education Financial Sustainability report reveals a bleak, but unsurprising, picture of the severe economic climate higher education providers are operating in. Challenges, amongst many, involve domestic fee caps, recruitment barriers, rising operational and infrastructure costs, as well as long-standing losses on research [1]. According to the report, these turbulent market conditions have led to 40% of UK universities forecasting a deficit in 2023/24 [2].
In a time where the sector is facing financial crisis and limited support [3], universities may find an economic lifeline in the form of international students, who remain a vital source of revenue. However, the increasing global competition [4] and current visa and immigration policies [5] – namely, the restrictions on bringing dependents into the country and student and graduate routes changes – are already having a significant impact on overseas student recruitment, with the University of York reporting a 16% decrease in international students recruited in 2022-23. Similar “shocks” at other institutions have caused the Russell Group to stress the overreliance on international students to boost income [6]. With the UK also expecting a general election before January 2025 [7], changes to visa and immigration policies are also highly anticipated, which may further affect international student recruitment to the UK.
‘40% of UK universities are forecasting a deficit in 2023/24’ – UK Higher Education Financial Sustainability report, PWC, January 2024
If international student recruitment is slowing, the retention of international students emerges as a critical factor for ensuring financial stability in UK higher education institutions. Universities must look to pursue proactive strategies to prevent loss of income and support longer-term financial sustainability. Student retention and continuation initiatives may prove crucial in these efforts; early identification of students who may be at-risk of withdrawal or require additional support to engage and succeed in their academic studies, and implementing timely interventions could be pivotal for universities in retaining both students and income.
Counting the cost of high attrition for international students
The cost of withdrawal from international students is both profound and multifaceted. International students enrich academic environments with cultural diversity, unique perspectives and help enhance the global reputation of UK Higher Education. Amidst the pursuit of global educational excellence, their substantial tuition fees provide a much-needed financial influx to universities. Overseas students also bring further economic vitality through accommodation expenses, purchases at university commercial outlets, and spending on goods and services, injecting billions of pounds into the UK economy annually [8]. And when demonstrating their immense economic contribution, it is easy to overlook the flip side: the financial repercussions that premature departure of international students can present for UK universities.
In simple terms, international student tuition fees are higher than domestic fees, where undergraduate courses which have been capped since 2012 remain stagnant at £9,250, and are now worth only £5,990 in 2012 prices [9]. International students’ tuition fees can vary between courses and institutions, and are usually between £10,000 and £26,000 annually [10], averaging at £22,000 [11]. It is easy to calculate that the financial loss to universities from departing overseas students is greater than that of domestic students, but the cost and ramifications of non-retention of international students goes beyond that of tuition fee income.
Universities invest significant time, resource and money in attracting, recruiting and educating international students. Without equal efforts in retaining international students and supporting them to succeed, the loss from withdrawal and non-continuation disrupts budget projections for the year and the return on investment of these resources will be lower, impacting financial sustainability. When international students do not have the support they need to succeed, or do not find value in continuing with a UK higher education degree, there can be reputational costs to the university and their global academic standing. Early withdrawal can also affect accommodation providers (both university-owned and private), and local businesses and communities that rely on their patronage, which is important to university civic impact and engagement [12].
It is clear then, that retention is as critical as recruitment. International student retention not only safeguards the financial sustainability of the sector, but the UK’s international reputation for academic and research excellence and strengthens the position as a leading destination for higher education, in an increasingly competitive global environment.
Leveraging Student Engagement Analytics to Enhance Student Retention
Student engagement analytics, like those provided by StREAM can be leveraged as a data-driven approach to support universities to proactively improve student retention and continuation. Across our 10+ years working in partnership with Higher Education institutions across the UK, retention is still the most immediate and recurrent reason universities begin to explore how to better use student engagement data to support the student experience and secure successful student outcomes.
When considering the turbulent financial outlook of the sector, it is easy to perhaps focus on the number of international students enrolled and the profitability of these numbers from the outset. These insights are important, but to see a clear return on investment and an impression on that bottom line, universities need to look at how they holistically adopt student engagement analytics to enhance student retention. It comes down to early identification and timely personalised support for each student.
Effective student retention depends on addressing issues impacting individual engagement with academic studies, making engagement data essential in identifying and resolving these challenges. By taking learning engagement data from ‘educationally-purposeful’ activities for each student, StREAM’s predictive algorithm can generate daily engagement scores in near real-time, empowering universities to identify students with low or changing engagement behaviour, who may be at-risk of disengaging from their studies. Universities are subsequently better positioned to support individual students based on what they do (their engagement), regardless of their background (outlined in Foster and Siddle, 2019), which helps integrate international and domestic student support. The data can be used as a starting point for more meaningful conversations with students to determine and refer them to the right specialist support.
It is also important to recognise that international students may have unique experiences and/or challenges to home students as well, and that both overseas students and universities have responsibilities around UKVI policies and regulations. With simple filters helping to identify overseas students with visa requirements, that does not influence or bias the data, engagement analytics also help reduce the risk of losing students to non-compliance. Therefore, engagement data at individual level is especially crucial for supporting international student retention and continuation, as to ensure UKVI compliance, institutions are required to demonstrate both attendance and how international students are engaging with academic studies.
For StREAM engagement data goes beyond simple attendance monitoring to provide a much more holistic understanding about each student’s participation in their learning, so that universities are able to see a fuller picture of student success, and we’re seeing this in action. The University of Essex has experienced a significant reduction in early student withdrawal by taking this broader view of engagement and activating more targeted support. By having a richer understanding, universities, like Essex, can see near real-time impact on current student retention and continuation initiatives, which ultimately impacts their financial sustainability.
International students who engage and thrive in their studies bring significant economic and reputational contribution for UK higher education, as outlined above. Engagement analytics open the possibility for universities to embed a proactive and data-driven approach to ensuring at-risk students are identified earlier, so that they can receive timely and personalised support to help them succeed in their studies and reach their full potential. When international students prosper, it helps the sector to do so also.
Discover 6 ways StREAM can support international student engagement or book a call to chat with us.
References
[2] PWC UK Higher Education Financial Sustainability report (PWC)
[3] The looming financial crisis at UK universities (Financial Times)
[4] international student recruitment: why aren’t we second? (Universities UK International)
[6]Russell Group universities contemplate overseas student ‘shocks’ (Times Higher Education)
[8] International students boost UK economy by £41.9 billion (Hepi)
[9] UK Higher Education Financial Sustainability Report (Universities UK)
[10] The cost of studying at a university in the UK as an international student (Times Higher Education)
[11] Cost of studying and living in the UK (British Council)
[12] Truly Civic: Strengthening the connection between universities and their places (UPP Foundation)
